The Challenge: Cutthroat

After two episodes the MTV reality show The Challenge: Cutthroat has not had much to analyze strategically. The only major choices faced so far have been picking the teams and choosing who gets sent into the elimination round.

Bill Simmons and the NFC West

In his weekly football column, Bill Simmons of ESPN.com harshly criticizes the NFC West. His main point of evidence is the NFC's west record since 2002 (go-go arbitrary end points). He posts this table in his article:

Aging Curves in Basketball

The NBA offseason raised a few questions. In order to answer these questions I need to do a little research and figure out a few things. One of these things is an aging curve for basketball players. What is their prime? What rate do they decline after that prime? Luckily this question has been asked and answered in baseball so I can use their methodology and apply it to basketball.

For data, I went to www.basketball-reference.com and pulled the advanced data for players from the 2000-2001 season through the 2009-2010 season (the seasons from the last collective bargaining agreement). My methodology follows the work of TangoTiger and MGL, particularly this article written by MGL. I will try to briefly summarize the methodology. MGL offers a much clearer explanation so I recommend reading that article first.

The World Cup Approaches...

Another World Cup tradition: players complaining about the new ball. The Adidas Jabulani replaces the much maligned 2006 Teamgeist and the hated 2002 Fevernova. Goalkeepers complained about the 1994 Questra ball and I'm sure soccer players wished many unkind things towards the 1998 Tricolore ball but I can't find a link. I'm not sure why but I find the sky-is-falling stories about the new balls amusing.

Fresh Meat II: Episode 7

Continuing my strange fascination with the MTV show Fresh Meat II, here's a post about the latest episode. Wes's coalition officially reached its end as the two remaining teams in it where forced into the elimination challenge. Wes's team lost and left the game. We are left with 6 teams. 4 eams are in Kenny's alliance and 2 are on the outskirts. The last 4 teams go to the finals where they compete for cash money. 1st place in the final challenge wins $200k, 2nd place $60k, 3rd place $40k, and 4th place receives nothing. The goal is to not only make it to the finals, but to maximize your expected winnings in the finals. Strategically, how should the six remaining teams behave to optimize their expected payout?

The Challenge: Fresh Meat II Episode 6

A few weeks ago I wrote a post saying that Kenny's alliance had basically no chance to retake the majority (0.2%). The Kenny's alliance was down 7 teams to 3. The alliance would have to win 4 reward challenges and 3 elimination challenges in order to take back the majority. 3 reward challenge victories and 3 elimination challenge victories later, Kenny's alliance has seized control of the game and is in a dominant position. What happened? Why was I so wrong in underestimating the chances of Kenny's alliance?

Fresh Meat II: The Challenge Episode #4

My earlier posts on the MTV reality show Fresh Meat II: The Challenge recommended two strategies for the competing factions in the show: one side should tighten the bounds in its group and keep loyalty strong while the other side should use the threat throwing a team into the elimination challenge as a way to get teams to defect to their faction. However the factions got the strategies backwards. I recommended Kenny's alliance use the threat of being sent into the elimination challenge to get someone to defect to his alliance. Wes's coalition had the superior numbers. It was in Wes's coalition's best interests to keep loyalty strong within the group. Instead Kenny let someone in his alliance choose who was going into the elimination challenge, thus trying to boost loyalty withing the group while Wes's coalition used the threat of being thrown into the elimination round to get a team to defect to his coalition.

NBA #1 Seeds that Struggle in the First Round

A post on Hoops Analyst talks about the Los Angeles Lakers - Oklahoma Thunder NBA playoff first round series. The Lakers are the highly rated #1 seed and the Thunder are the lowest rated #8 seed. The two teams are playing a best-of-seven series. The author asks if a #1 seed that is struggling against a #8 seed is "a bad indicator for their success in the playoffs"? The post then looks at each of the #1 seeds that struggled against #8 seeds and concludes "I would venture that there is little correlation between a round one struggle and overall team weakness." What does the data say?

The Challenge: Fresh Meat II Wes's Coalition

With Wes's coalition in such a dominate position, the 7 teams in it have to start moving beyond the threat of Kenny's alliance (3 teams) and strategizing  for the end game. In particular two things: avoiding the elimination round and being one of the final four teams that gets to compete for the cash prize. As long as Kenny's alliance remains, Wes's coalition will keep choosing them to go into the elimination challenge. Wes's coalition could be left with 7 teams or it could lose a couple elimination challenges and be left with 5 teams when Kenny's alliance is down to one team. At that point Wes's coalition will have to turn on itself.

Fresh Meat II: The Future for Kenny's Alliance

In the last episode of The Challenge: Fresh Meat II, Kenny's alliance lost the elimination challenge. It also became clear that one of the teams in Kenny's alliance was a mole. That puts Wes's coalition at 7 teams and Kenny's alliance at 3 teams. Kenny's alliance is pretty much doomed. They would have to win four reward challenges and three elimination challenges in a row to get back to equal footing. A loss in any of those challenges would lead to one of the teams in Kenny's alliance going home. If every elimination challenge is a 50-50 proposition and all teams are equally likely to win a reward challenge, the probability of Kenny's alliance winning three reward challenges and two elimination challenges in a row is 0.2% (30%*50%*33%*50%*38%*50%*43%= 00.2%). There is basically no chance of Kenny's alliance seizing the majority unless Kenny's alliance gets a team from Wes's coalition to defect.

Fresh Meat II

A couple of strategic decisions came up in the MTV show The Challenge: Fresh Meat II. For those who don't watch reality TV here's a quick run down. Thirteen teams of two compete to win prizes in a reward challenge. The winner gets a prize and is safe from the elimination round. At the end of the show, two teams are picked to go to an elimination round where the losing team goes home. One of the two teams that goes to the elimination round is picked by the winner of the reward challenge, the other is picked by majority vote. After nine teams have been eliminated, the final four teams get to compete in the final challenge with the top three teams winning money.