Fresh Meat II: The Future for Kenny's Alliance

In the last episode of The Challenge: Fresh Meat II, Kenny's alliance lost the elimination challenge. It also became clear that one of the teams in Kenny's alliance was a mole. That puts Wes's coalition at 7 teams and Kenny's alliance at 3 teams. Kenny's alliance is pretty much doomed. They would have to win four reward challenges and three elimination challenges in a row to get back to equal footing. A loss in any of those challenges would lead to one of the teams in Kenny's alliance going home. If every elimination challenge is a 50-50 proposition and all teams are equally likely to win a reward challenge, the probability of Kenny's alliance winning three reward challenges and two elimination challenges in a row is 0.2% (30%*50%*33%*50%*38%*50%*43%= 00.2%). There is basically no chance of Kenny's alliance seizing the majority unless Kenny's alliance gets a team from Wes's coalition to defect.

What are some possible ways to get a defection? Remember that the winner of the reward challenge gets to vote one of the teams into the elimination challenge. One possible way is to use the threat of voting someone into the elimination challenge as a threat to get someone into your alliance. Kenny could have used that threat in the last episode. "Hey join my alliance and vote with me or I'll throw you into the elimination round." and perhaps gotten one of the teams to defect. My preferred style would to be to gather the two teams in Wes's coalition who are the least loyal and use that threat. Whoever defects first is in your alliance, the other person is voted into the elimination challenge. The high pressure of the situation and the threat of going into the elimination challenge could get someone to not think strategically and defect. The problem is there isn't much of a way for Kenny to enforce the threat. Someone could promise to join your alliance and then when Kenny chooses to put the other team into the elimination round, the team could simply keep voting with Wes.

Only four teams from Wes's coalition will make it to the final round. At some point the teams on the outside of Wes's coalition will realize that Wes doesn't intend for them to be one of the four teams in the final round. Kenny's alliance only has three teams in it so joining Kenny's alliance means a 100% chance of making it to the final round (that is if Kenny's alliance lasts that long). If their odds of making the final round are better by joining Kenny's alliance than by staying in Wes's alliance it makes sense to defect. If Kenny's alliance wins a few challenges and gets the balance to 3 teams in Kenny's alliance and 6 teams in Wes's coalition, then there is incentive for one of the teams on the outside of Wes's coalition to jump to Kenny's alliance. Kenny's alliance should continue to speak to the teams on the outside of Wes's coalition to try to get them to defect. CJ and Sandra and Katelynn and Brandon in particular appear to be on the outs in Wes's alliance. I also suspect Wes's coalition to turn on Landon's team at some point since he is very good at the challenges.

Are there any other strategies for Kenny's alliance that make sense? So far the presumption has been that the 3 teams in Kenny's alliance are best served by sticking together. Defecting to Wes's coalition isn't really an option as Wes's coalition already has enough teams in it and will have to start turning on itself soon. Even if you wanted to join Wes's coalition they don't want you. Perhaps if one of the teams in Kenny's alliance wins the reward challenge they can bargain with Wes's coalition and get a promise from Wes that they will not be thrown into a subsequent elimination challenge, but Wes's promise would be unenforceable and unlikely to be upheld. Plus Wes has already made an broken such a promise to Kenny. Perhaps if Kenny is eliminated, the teams remaining in Kenny's alliance and the teams on the outs in Wes's coalition could form a new alliance, but that could only happen if Wes completely mismanages his coalition.

Despite the chances of Kenny's alliance seizing control of the game being exceedingly small, sticking together is really the only option for the teams in Kenny's alliance. A couple of wins will prolong the amount of time until they are eliminated and a series of wins and a defection could put allow them to seize control of the game. It's a slim chance but it's still a chance. In my next post, I'll consider what the Wes's coalition should do going forward.