The Challenge: Cutthroat

After two episodes the MTV reality show The Challenge: Cutthroat has not had much to analyze strategically. The only major choices faced so far have been picking the teams and choosing who gets sent into the elimination round.

The basic structure of the game is as follows. Three team captains were chosen based on their weakness in the initial challenge. Each captain selects players until the contestants are divided into three equal teams of 8 players. The three teams then compete against each other in challenges. The winning team gets $20k in their bank account--which can only be redeemed if that team wins the show's final challenge--and the losing teams select one male and one female contestant to go into the elimination round. In the elimination round, the two males face off and the two females face off in separate competitions. The loser of each competition goes home.

The first important decision faced was by the three captains. They had to decide who to choose to be on their team. At that time the captains did not realize how people would be eliminated. However the show has featured voting and elimination rounds for the past few seasons so it was not a stretch to imagine this happening again. In hindsight it makes the most sense to choose players you can form an alliance with. Controlling the voting allows you to keep yourself out of the elimination round. Stronger players give you the chance to win more challenges but weaker players are more likely to get voted into the elimination rounds and thus give you some protection from going home. The show is notoriously hard on first-time players. It may have made sense for one of the newer captains to stack their team with first-time or newer players to prevent the captain from being at a disadvantage.

When voting for the elimination round, the optimal strategy it is pretty straightforward. Ally yourself with enough people in your team so you form a majority. At each vote, vote in someone who is not in your majority. It is preferable to keep the stronger players around. However with the challenges being three-way competitions and testing very random skills, even with a strong team your chances of winning are not that great. Teams have to figure they will lose multiple times and need to plan accordingly.

The beginning elimination rounds featured some weaker players. In hindsight it may have made sense to vote in a stronger player to eliminate the other teams' weaker players and preserve your weaker players (who can then become fodder in later rounds). The downside to this strategy is that if both teams think this way, then the initial elimination rounds feature stronger players and teams risk losing their strong players. Sort of similar to the game theory version of chicken.