One of the obvious places I was wrong was in my assumption that all the teams in the reward challenges had an equal shot of winning. While that may have seemed like a valid assumption when the challenges were seemingly random like trying to grab a huge rubber ball while blindfolded or trying to hold your breath underwater, it turns out Kenny's team had a huge advantage in the reward challenges. Kenny and Laurel are a very strong team. The other assumption I made was that Wes's coalition would behave rationally. I thought Wes' coalition would try to maintain their numbers advantage and keep voting a team from Kenny's alliance into the elimination challenge. I assumed the two teams in the elimination would each have a 50% of winning. That was not the case. Wes's coalition came from the Ignatius J. Riley school of dumbass-ery.
Wes's coalition made some terrible choices. In two of the elimination challenges they voted one of their own teams into the elimination challenge, making it so it was a 100% chance that a team from their coalition would go home. In the other elimination challenge Wes's coalition set it up so their weakest team went against one of the stronger teams from Kenny's alliance. Rather than trying to protect their teams from the elimination round, Wes's coalition sacrificed them.
Some specific examples of the stupidity of Wes's coalition:
- Episode 4: Wes's coalition is up 7 teams to 3. Kenny and Laurel win the reward challenge and vote a team from Wes's coalition into the elimination challenge. Wes's coalition decides to vote one of their members into the elimination challenge because the team had a member with a hurt leg. Strategically this makes no sense. Wes's coalition has nothing to gain from such a match up. 100% chance of losing a team. Wes's coalition loses a team.
- Episode 5: Wes's coalition is up 6 teams to 3. Kenny and Laurel win the reward challenge and vote a team for Wes's coalition into the elimination challenge. Wes's coalition strikes a deal with a member of Kenny's alliance (Ryan) basically saying we won't vote you in if you help convince Kenny which team to put into the elimination challenge. Wes also views Ryan's team as the weakest team remaining and wants to keep Ryan around as insurance. If Wes gets voted into the elimination round, he'll vote Ryan in since it's a weak team. Wes's coalition values this relationship and insurance more than trying to keep one of their coalition teams in the game. Wes's coalition votes the strongest team from Kenny's alliance into the elimination challenge. Wes's coalition loses the elimination challenge and another member. In the process, Wes appears to have betrayed his good friend and weakened loyalty in his coalition.
- Episode 6: Wes's coalition is up 5 teams to 3. Kenny's alliance wins the reward challenge. Wes is afraid he will be selected into the elimination challenge. He betrays his coalition and helps set it up so two of his coalition teams will go into the elimination challenge. Wes loses a coalition member, alienates the coalition member he betrayed, and one of his coalition team defects. Kenny's alliance is now up 4 teams to 2 with 1 team's allegiance unknown (the betrayed former member of Wes's coalition).
Wes made three general mistakes that lead to his coalition collapsing. First, he did not try to maximize his coalition's chances in elimination challenges, secondly he valued hidden alliances with teams more than the actual bonds he had with his coalition members, and thirdly he was too afraid to compete in the elimination challenge. He played too cute of a game. Hidden double agents, insurance teams, minimizing his chance to get thrown into the elimination round... these strategies aren't worth a damn if you give up your numbers advantage and destroy your coalition pursuing them. The most important part of the game is in having a numbers advantage. Wes did not value the numbers advantage and now it is going to cost him.
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