Fresh Meat II: Episode 7

Continuing my strange fascination with the MTV show Fresh Meat II, here's a post about the latest episode. Wes's coalition officially reached its end as the two remaining teams in it where forced into the elimination challenge. Wes's team lost and left the game. We are left with 6 teams. 4 eams are in Kenny's alliance and 2 are on the outskirts. The last 4 teams go to the finals where they compete for cash money. 1st place in the final challenge wins $200k, 2nd place $60k, 3rd place $40k, and 4th place receives nothing. The goal is to not only make it to the finals, but to maximize your expected winnings in the finals. Strategically, how should the six remaining teams behave to optimize their expected payout?

The six remaining teams can be roughly classified as belonging to one of three groups. The first group is the two strong teams in Kenny's alliance (Kenny & Laurel and Pete & Gillian), the second group is the weaker teams in Kenny's alliance (Jenn & Noor and Ryan & Theresa), and the third group is the two teams not in Kenny's alliance (Landon & Carlie and Eve & Luke).

The two strong teams in Kenny's alliance are in the best position. They are likely to be in the remaining four teams, they are strong at the elimination challenges so they are likely to win them if sent in, and once in the finals stand a good chance of getting 1st or 2nd place. Since they are in such a strong position, I recommend a conservative strategy. Consolidate your alliance, try to eliminate the teams outside of your alliance, and avoid being sent into an elimination challenge. The only way these two teams could increase their chances of winning more money would be to try to eliminate the other strong team.

This would involve betraying your alliance and creating some fallout. This would only be a recommended strategy if the strong team wins the final reward challenge (when there are 5 teams remaining). At that point being in the alliance does not matter since the winner of the final reward challenge automatically makes the finals. The strong team could chose the other strong team to go to the elimination challenge and hope that that team loses. The downside to this strategy is it involves an emotional cost--as you betray the people who helped you reach this point in the game. More tangentially, if you come back on a future show other players may have trouble trusting you. If Kenny's team or Pete's team wins the final reward challenge it will be interesting if they consider this strategy.

The third group is the two teams on the outside of the alliance. The most likely outcome is that these two teams are voted into the next elimination challenge. The winner of the elimination challenge stays on the show and will then probably have to go into the next elimination challenge. That's only a 25% (50% x 50% = 25%) chance of making the finals. The teams on the outside of the alliance need to win reward challenges to avoid the elimination challenge or try to get the two weak teams in Kenny's alliance to defect from Kenny's alliance and join them.

The two weak teams in Kenny's alliance are in the most interesting position. Yes they have a great chance of reaching the finals (I'd estimate about an 85% chance). However, once in the finals they do not have a good chance of making much money. The strong teams in their alliance are more likely to win 1st and 2nd place. If the two weak teams stick together and join the two teams on the outside of Kenny's alliance, they could vote the strong teams into the elimination challenge. However this would require the two teams outside of Kenny's alliance being trustworthy (clearly they are not) and the strong teams would have to be prevented from winning the two remaining reward challenges (which will likely not happen).

This leaves the weak teams in a somewhat poor position. When there are 5 teams left, one of them will likely have to go into the elimination challenge against the remaining team not in Kenny's alliance. Then in the finals the weak teams will have to compete against the strong teams. I ran three models (see below) where I estimated each teams chance of winning 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th place depending on their competition. Note that eliminating both strong teams, leads to the weak teams winning an estimated $20k more than competing against the strong teams. Eliminating just one of the strong teams leads to an estimated winnings of $10k more. Also note that a strong team stands to win $10k more on average if the other strong team is eliminated prior to the finals.

Other Thoughts on Episode 7:
Landon's team won the reward challenge and thus got to choose one of the teams sent into the elimination challenge. I'm surprised Landon didn't use that to his advantage and try to work himself into Kenny's alliance. Instead he remains on the outside of the alliance in a very poor position. Landon gets to choose the order the teams compete in the next reward challenge. He should maximize his chances of winning the reward challenge by placing the strongest teams first (ie Kenny and Pete's teams) or use the threat of that to try to work his way into Kenny's alliance.