NBA Amnesty Clause: Southwest Division

The analysis of a potential NBA Amnesty Clause now turns to the Western Conference Southwest Division. See my first post on this for some background. Basically I am looking for the worst contract on each team, with "worst" being decided by criteria particular to what the Amnesty Clause will likely be.


Dallas

Brandon Heywood has 4 years and $35m left on his contract. He is 32 and had a 11.7 PER this past year. His is the worst contract on the team. However if Tyson Chandler leaves as a free agent after this year and no suitable replacement can be found then Dallas may be stuck with Heywood. Marion has 3 years and $26m remaining on his contract entering his year 33 season. The ideal outcome for Dallas is to win the title and sign Chandler to a reasonable contract using the cap space saved by jettisoning Heywood's contract.

Contract to Eliminate: Brandon Heywood

Houston

Maybe Brad Miller (2 years, $10m, age 35) or Luis Scola (4 years, $39m, age 31) but both had above average PER and Win Shares last year. I would probably not eliminate either contract. Houston will be under the cap next year and Scola is a good enough player to contribute or if need be his contract can be traded.

Contract to Eliminate: None

Memphis

The Grizzlies overpaid Rudy Gay, Mike Conley, and Zach Randolph but not to the extent that it makes sense to eliminate his contract at this time. By overpay I don't necessarily mean pay more than their production makes them worth--though that may be the case--I meant they paid more than they had to. In all three of the cases the Grizzlies were only bidding against themselves and bid too high.

Contract to Eliminate: None

New Orleans

Trevor Ariza (3 years, $21m) has a contributed -.3 Offensive Win Shares the past two seasons while producing a well below average PER. Emeka Okafor is overpaid (3 years, $41m) but a slightly above average player.

Contract to Eliminate: Trevor Ariza

San Antonio Spurs

Richard Jeffersion (3 years, $30m, age 31) is the most likely target. Poor PER the past two years. Rumor is that the Spurs agreed to sign Jefferson to that awful deal in exchange for him declining his $15m player option after the end of last season. Despite that bad contract the Spurs are still in a great salary cap position. As I mentioned in a prior post, I am impressed by how the Spurs can put together such a competitive team while still having lots of future cap flexibility.

Contract to Eliminate: Richard Jefferson