Sunday, June 5, 2011

NBA Amnesty Clause: Southeast Division

Next up for discussion, the contracts of the Southeast Division. See my first post on the Amnesty Clause for a little background.

Atlanta Hawks

Joe Johnson has a huge contract (5 years and $107m), is over 30 and is coming off a very average year (16.4 PER, 4.2 Win Shares). That contract looks bad now and could become an Arenas like disaster. After Johnson, Marvin Williams and Zaza Pachulia are possible candiates. Both have below average PER the past two years. Williams has 3 years and $23m remaining and Pachulia has 2 years and $10m. I would lean towards eliminating Williams' larger contract though I would give Joe Johnson's deal some consideration.

Contract to Eliminate: Marvin Williams

Charlotte Bobcats

Diop has averaged a 6.6 PER the past 2 years, had a negative Win Share in 2010, and only played in 43 games the past 2 years. His contract is the biggest waste but he only has 2 years and $14m remaining. Tyrus Thomas has 4 years and $33m remaining but his PER was a decent 18.2 last year and he is only 24. I would only eliminate his contract if you had to clear cap space 3 and 4 years from now or if you had major concerns about his ongoing injuries.

Contract to Eliminate: DeSagana Diop

Miami Heat

The Heat are projected to be over the Salary Cap through the 2015-2016 season. Bosh, Lebron, and Wade's contracts make up the majority of that but all three are on reasonable deals. Eliminating anyone else's contract would not be enough to bring the Heat below the cap. The Heat would lose a player and be unable to replace them with anyone other than a league minimum player. Miller, Anthony, and Haslem had sub par seasons but there is no sense in eliminating anyone who can contribute to the team's upcoming title chances when the replacement would likely be worse.

Contract to Eliminate: None

Orlando Magic

Yes it Gilbert Arenas. Of course it is Gilbert Arenas (3 years, $62m). If there is an Amnesty Clause, I would nominate calling it the 'Arenas Rule' as a homage to the 'Allan Houston' rule the first Amnesty Clause was nicknamed. Honorable mention to Hedo Turkoglu (3 years, $34m). The Magic are pretty much overpaying everyone on their roster with the exception of Dwight Howard.

Contract to Eliminate: Gilbert Arenas

Washington Magic

Rashard Lewis is due $46m over the next two years. His stats and skills have deteriorated the past two years, including a poor 12 PER in the 2010-11 season. He is on the wrong side of 30 and unlikely to start playing up to his contract.

Contract to Eliminate: Rashard Lewis

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