Monday, June 6, 2011

NBA Amnesty Clause: Atlantic & Central Divisions

Wrapping up hypothetical targets of the NBA Amnesty, clause let's take a look at the Atlantic and Central Divisions. For some background see my original post on the clause.

Atlantic Division

Boston Celtics

The only large contracts are Rondo and Pierce. Rondo is an All Star on a good contract.
Pierce may not be worth his salary after this upcoming season but still provides value, particularly to this Celtics team which which is built for next season. Honestly, the only contracts to consider were small one year contracts to Shaq and Avery Bradley. However Shaq retired. That leaves Bradley but he's only 20 years old and has a chance to improve.

Contract to Eliminate: None

New Jersey Nets

The awfulness of Travis Outlaw's contract (3 years, $21m) is testing the the limits of my crude $ per Win Share projection formula. I estimate that the Nets will be paying an estimated $20m per win. What an awful signing for a rebuilding team.

Contract to Eliminate: Travis Outlaw

New York Knicks

Amare Stoudemire, Carmelo Anthony, and Ronaldo Balkman are the only players with contracts lasting more than one season. Balkman has only played in 21 games the past two years but his contract is only a 2 years and $3.3m.

Contract to Eliminate: None/Balkman

Philadelphia 76'ers

Elton Brand (2 years, $35m) has a big contract but he had a very good season this year with 9.4 Win Shares. Cutting it would clear up a bunch of cap space. Worth considering if there is a free agent Philly wants to target.

Contract to Eliminate: None (maybe Brand)

Toronto Raptors

Linas Kleiza (3 years, $14m) had an awful 2010-2011 season but it was his first year in the league and he's only 26.

Contract to Eliminate: None/Kleiza

Central Division

Chicago

Boozer (4 year, $61m), Noah (5 year, $61m), and Deng (3 year, $40m) are the candidates. I would be hesitant to eliminate any of their contracts unless it could get the Bulls under the cap enough to sign a better player. If that is a possibility, eliminating Deng's contract may make sense but Deng is still only 26. The Bulls had the best record in the league this year. Since the team is this close to the championship, it does not make sense to jettison a useful player and lessen their title chances for the possibility to have some extra cap space a few years down the line.

Contract to Eliminate: None

Cleveland

Baron Davis is the leading candidate with 2 years and $29m remaining. The Clippers had to trade their first round pick in order to get the Cavs to take him. He has a low expected Win Shares over the remainder of his contract and the Cavs are rumoured to be considering drafting a point guard to replace him with their #1 overall pick. Varejao (4 years, $35m) is worth considering if you believe he will be unable to return from injuries and his contract will be untradeable in the future.

Contract to Eliminate: Baron Davis

Detroit Pistons

Ug they have some bad contracts. The high price of mediocrity indeed. Ben Gordon (3 years, $37m) and Richard Hamilton (2 years, $25m) are worthy choices. My predictor has Detroit paying Gordon $9m per Win Share and Hamilton $12m per Win Share over the remainder of their contracts. I go with eliminating Gordon's deal as it has more years on it.

Contract to Eliminate: Ben Gordon

Indiana Pacers

Danny Granger (3 years and $39m) and Dahntay Jones (2 years, $6m) are the only contracts that last beyond the 2011-2012 season. Granger is a good player and a tradeable asset. Maybe Jones but Indiana will be well below the cap either way.

Contract to Eliminate: None

Milwaukee Bucks

John Salmons has 4 years and $31m left on his contract as he enters his age 32 season. His PER has been below average the past two years. His Win Shares have been solid but he only had .9 Offensive Win Shares this season. I still don't get why the Bucks signed the mediocre Salmons and well travelled Drew Gooden to such long contracts last year. We might have a lock out next year because dumb teams like the Bucks and Pistons choose to overpay mediocre journeyman and still miss the playoffs.

Contract to Eliminate: John Salmons

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