The World Cup Approaches...

Another World Cup tradition: players complaining about the new ball. The Adidas Jabulani replaces the much maligned 2006 Teamgeist and the hated 2002 Fevernova. Goalkeepers complained about the 1994 Questra ball and I'm sure soccer players wished many unkind things towards the 1998 Tricolore ball but I can't find a link. I'm not sure why but I find the sky-is-falling stories about the new balls amusing.

Fresh Meat II: Episode 7

Continuing my strange fascination with the MTV show Fresh Meat II, here's a post about the latest episode. Wes's coalition officially reached its end as the two remaining teams in it where forced into the elimination challenge. Wes's team lost and left the game. We are left with 6 teams. 4 eams are in Kenny's alliance and 2 are on the outskirts. The last 4 teams go to the finals where they compete for cash money. 1st place in the final challenge wins $200k, 2nd place $60k, 3rd place $40k, and 4th place receives nothing. The goal is to not only make it to the finals, but to maximize your expected winnings in the finals. Strategically, how should the six remaining teams behave to optimize their expected payout?

The Challenge: Fresh Meat II Episode 6

A few weeks ago I wrote a post saying that Kenny's alliance had basically no chance to retake the majority (0.2%). The Kenny's alliance was down 7 teams to 3. The alliance would have to win 4 reward challenges and 3 elimination challenges in order to take back the majority. 3 reward challenge victories and 3 elimination challenge victories later, Kenny's alliance has seized control of the game and is in a dominant position. What happened? Why was I so wrong in underestimating the chances of Kenny's alliance?

Fresh Meat II: The Challenge Episode #4

My earlier posts on the MTV reality show Fresh Meat II: The Challenge recommended two strategies for the competing factions in the show: one side should tighten the bounds in its group and keep loyalty strong while the other side should use the threat throwing a team into the elimination challenge as a way to get teams to defect to their faction. However the factions got the strategies backwards. I recommended Kenny's alliance use the threat of being sent into the elimination challenge to get someone to defect to his alliance. Wes's coalition had the superior numbers. It was in Wes's coalition's best interests to keep loyalty strong within the group. Instead Kenny let someone in his alliance choose who was going into the elimination challenge, thus trying to boost loyalty withing the group while Wes's coalition used the threat of being thrown into the elimination round to get a team to defect to his coalition.