2011 NFL Playoffs: Are the Patriots Better Off as a #1 or #2 Seed?

I'm a fan of the New England Patriots. During the past few weeks it became clear that the Patriots were going to be in the NFL playoffs as either the #1 or #2 seed. I've heard opinions expressed both ways as to which seed is preferable. Some argued that the #1 seed is better as it means home field advantage throughout the playoffs while others argued that the #2 seed was preferable as the Patriots would likely avoid playing the strong #5 seed in the 2nd round (Baltimore or Pittsburgh) followed by playing the #2 seed in the 3rd round (Baltimore or Pittsburgh). So do the Patriots have a better chance of making the Super Bowl being the #1 or #2 seed?

Some background on the NFL Playoffs. 12 teams make the playoffs, 6 in each conference. I'm focusing on the Patriots conference (the AFC), though this analysis can be applied to either conference or any future year (click here to use a tool to supply your own teams). The 6 teams in the AFC are seeded #1-#6. The #1 and #2 seeds are given a huge advantage by being given a bye in the 1st round thus automatically proceeding to 2nd round. In the first round, the #3 seed plays the #6 seed and the #4 seed plays the #5 seed. The winning teams advance to the 2nd round. In the 2nd round, the #1 seed plays the lowest seed still in the playoffs and the #2 seed plays the other team. In the 3rd round the two remaining teams play with the winner going to the Super Bowl. All games are played at the home stadium of the lower numbered seed.

The twist though is how the NFL determines the #1-#6 seeds. The #1-#4 seed are the 4 teams that won their division, ranked by the strength of their record. The #5 and #6 seeds are the two best teams that did not win their division. The problem though is that the #5 seed is often much better that the #3 or #4 seeds. That is the case this year where Pittsburgh is seeded #5 despite having a 12-4 Won-Loss record while Denver is seeded #4 with an 8-8 loss record.

Here are the seeds this year followed by their Won-Loss record:
#1 New England Patriots (13-3)
#2 Baltimore Ravens (12-4)
#3 Houston Texans (10-6)
#4 Denver Broncos (8-8)
#5 Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)
#6 Cincinnati Bengals (9-7)

To calculate the odds for each team making the Super Bowl I made a few simplifications. If you would rather supply your own chances each team has of winning a game and calculate your own odds, click the link here. The assumptions:

1. There are three strong teams (New England, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh) and three weak teams (Houston, Denver, and Cincinnati)
2. When a strong team plays a weak team at the home of the strong team, the strong team wins 70% of the time. On the road, the strong team wins 65% of the time
3. When a strong team plays a strong team or a weak team plays a weak team, the home team wins 55% of the time.

The % chance of winning are arbitrary, hence the link to the tool that let's you supply your own odds. I felt that New England, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh were fairly evenly matched. The Vegas gambling lines put Houston and Cincinnati on equal footing, with Houston only being a favorite because the game is being played in Houston. The tool also allows you to input your own teams so it can be used in future playoffs or the NFC. The results:

Team	% of Making Super Bowl
New England	37.5%
Baltimore	33.7%
Houston	5.6%
Denver	3.8%
Pittsburgh	15.1%
Cincinnati	4.3%

To answer my original question, yes the New England Patriots do have a better chance of making the Super Bowl as the #1 seed. Paradoxically, Baltimore has a slightly better chance of making the 3rd round of the playoffs than New England does (66% to 65%). This is because New England is more likely to face Pittsburgh in the 2nd round. However because New England would play Baltimore in New England in the 3rd round--were the two teams to meet--New England has slightly better odds overall. New England has a 36% chance of playing Pittsburgh in the 2nd round and a 42% chance of playing Baltimore in the 3rd round.