NBA Amnesty Clause: Best Amnesty Targets

The rules of the new CBA make my prior analysis of the amnesty clause mostly moot. As detailed in my last post, the new rules place a greater emphasis on saving the amnesty cut rather than using it right away. The amnesty provision is best used in order to either (1) clear cap space to make a free agent signing or (2) get under the luxury tax line--thus saving money and taking advantage of the rules favorable to teams under the tax line. Enough of the theorizing, what decision should each team make?

Boston Celtics

2011 Amnesty Targets to Consider: Jermaine O'Neal (1 year, $6m remaining)

The Celtics are over the Salary Cap and below the Luxury Tax line. The Celtics cannot get far enough under the cap to sign a coveted free agent without using the amnesty on a useful player. The Celtics could use it on O'Neal only if their other signings this off season push them over the Luxury Tax line and the team wants to save some money. The alternative is to save the amnesty for the future and use it on one of the only two players who are signed past 2012: Rajon Rondo and Paul Pierce. Saving the amnesty in case Paul Pierce's skills decline--he's 34 years old--or the Celtics want enormous cap space in the next couple years is the best move.

Best Decision: Save the amnesty

New Jersey Nets

2011 Amnesty Targets to Consider: Travis Outlaw (4 years, $28m)

Travis Outlaw is the obvious target with his awful play and large contract. However the Nets are under the minimum salary level so eliminating Outlaw would not save them any money. The best option is to cut Outlaw--either this year or prior to a future year--in conjunction with clearing up room for a major free agent signing or trade.

Best Decision: Amnesty Travis Outlaw and sign or trade for a major free agent

New York Knicks

2011 Amnesty Targets to Consider: Renaldo Balkman (2 years, $3.3m), Ronny Turiaf (1 year, $4.3m), Chauncey Billups (1 year, $14m)

The Knicks are well under the Luxury Tax line and cannot get far enough under the Salary Cap to make a major signing. Maybe save the amnesty in case Carmelo Anthony or Amare Stoudemire completely collapses in the future? Stoudemire has had some injury issues in his career.

Best Decision: According to reports, the Knicks will sign Tyson Chandler and either trade or amnesty Chauncey Billups (despite just picking up his $14m option) and Ronny Turiaf

Philadelphia 76ers

2011 Amnesty Targets to Consider: Elton Brand (2 years $35m), Andres Nocioni (1 year, $6.6m)

The 76ers are slightly below the Salary Cap line. Brand has the larger deal but was actually useful last year. Cutting Nocioni would put the 76ers about $9m under the Salary Cap. Cutting either one would make sense if a better free agent can then be signed in exchange. If the 76ers do not use it this year, their only other options are Brand next year or Andre Iguodala in the future (3 years, $42m)

Best Decision: Save the amnesty or cut Nocioni and sign a free agent

Toronto Raptors

2011 Amnesty Targets to Consider: Jose Calderon (2 years, $20m), Leandrinho Barbosa (1 year, $7.6m)

The Raptors are about $8m below the Salary Cap. Using the amnesty this year could clear up enough cap space to sign a major free agent. However the team was bad last year and there is no single free agent available this year that is good enough to turn the Raptors into a good team. Would cutting Calderon and using the cap space to sign Nene, Gasol, or Chandler really turn this 22 win team into something decent? If an amnesty is going to be used, Calderon is a somewhat useful player while Barbosa is more expendable. I'm also not sold on Andrea Bargnani (4 years, $42m) as a good player so saving the amnesty for him may be something to consider.

Best Decision: Save the amnesty

Chicago Bulls

2011 Amnesty Targets to Consider: None

A couple options here. Using it this year on Korver or Brewer--both productive players--might get Chicago slightly under the cap. A better option is to use the mid level to get the best free agent possible, and save the amnesty as insurance on one of the Bulls long term contracts (like Boozer, Noah, or Deng).

Best Decision: Save the amnesty

Cleveland Cavaliers

2011 Amnesty Targets to Consider: Baron Davis (2 years, $28.8m)

Baron Davis is the choice. Either use it this year or next depending on which free agents are available to sign. I lean towards using it next year as the Cavs may want a year to evaluate its young pieces and see what is available in the draft.

Best Decision: Save the amnesty

Detroit Pistons

2011 Amnesty Targets to Consider: Ben Gordon (3 years, $37.2m), Richard Hamilton (2 years, $25.3m), Charlie Villanueava (2 years, $24.1m)

I do not understand why they resigned Tayshaun Prince to a four year deal. In many of these write ups my advice is "amnesty X in order to sign a free agent." Detroit should just clean house. Too many overpaid veterans and not enough upside on this team. Trade Rip Hamilton or Ben Gordon and amnesty the other.

Best decision: Amnesty Ben Gordon or Rip Hamilton and trade the other

Indiana Pacers

2011 Amnesty Targets to Consider: James Posey (1 yr, $6.9m)

The Pacers are way under the cap this year and in the future. Other than James Posey there is not a viable target this year or in the future.

Best Decision: Save the amnesty

Milwaukee Bucks

2011 Amnesty Targets to Consider: Stephen Jackson (2 years, $19.3m), Beno Udrih (2 years, $15m), Drew Gooden (4 years, $26.2m)

Amnesty Stephen Jackson and sign a free agent this year or wait a year and amnesty Jackson, Beno, or Drew Gooden (yes they did just sign this guy last year).

Best Decision: Save the amnesty

Atlanta Hawks

2011 Amnesty Targets to Consider: Marvin Williams (3 years, $23.3m)

Man that Marvin Williams contract is bad and deserves the amnesty. It really does. However it does not help Atlanta's position this year and that Joe Johnson contract is immense. Save the amnesty in case that Joe Johnson contract becomes the next Rashard Lewis contract.

Best Decision: Save the amnesty

Charlotte Bobcats

2011 Amnesty Targets to Consider: DeSagana Diop (2 years, $14.3m)

DeSagana Diop is not a good NBA player.

Best Decision: DeSagana Diop

Miami Heat

2011 Amnesty Targets to Consider: Mike Miller (4 years, $24m), Joel Anthony (4 years, $15m), Udonis Haslem (4 years, $16.5m)

Lot of talk about using the amnesty on Mike Miller. Zach Lowe of si.com linked to an article calling it a necessity but I don't really see the need. I'd sign a mid level player this year--reports are it is going to be Shane Battier--then amnesty someone prior to next season and sign a new mid level player.

Best Decision: Save the amnesty

Orlando Magic

2011 Amnesty Targets to Consider: Gilbert Arenas (3 years, $62.3m), Hedo Turkoglu (3 years, $32.4m)

Gilbert Arenas is not the player he once was. Amnesty Arenas, get under the luxury line and under the cap. Dwight Howard, by most reports, is gone either this year or the next so it is time to start planning for the future. Using the amnesty on Arenas and trading Hedo Turkoglu with Howard is a good start.

Best Decision: Amnesty Gilbert Arenas

Washington Wizards

2011 Amnesty Targets to Consider: Rashard Lewis (2 years, $46m)

Time the dismissal of Rashard Lewis with the signing of a free agent. More likely to use it next year on Lewis than this year.

Best Decision: Rashard Lewis

Dallas Mavericks

2011 Amnesty Targets to Consider: Brandon Haywood (4 years, $34.8m), Shawn Marion (3 years, $25.9m)

I like what I hear about the Mavericks approach to this off season. Rather than over-pay Tyson Chandler for a long shot run at the title, the Mavs are staying avoiding free agency this year to clear up space to sign a major free agent next year. The amnesty could be used on Marion or Haywood prior to next season.

Best Decision: Save the amnesty

Houston Rockets

2011 Amnesty Targets to Consider: Hasheem Thatbeet (1 year, $5.1m)

Hasheem Thatbeet is the only target deserving of the amnesty on the Rockets. However there is not much benefit for this off season. The Rockets will have plenty of cap space next year.

Best Decision: Save the amnesty

Memphis Grizzlies

2011 Amnesty Targets to Consider: None

All the long term contracts on the Grizzlies are players the team has signed recently (Rudy Gay, Zach Randolph, and Mike Conley). All three may be slightly overpaid but none to the extent that they need to be cut this year. The amnesty will provide insurance for the next few years in case one of those players does not work out.

Best Decision: Save the amnesty

New Orleans Hornets

2011 Amnesty Targets to Consider: Emeka Okafor (3 years, $40.6m), Trevor Ariza (3 years, $21.7m)

The team has enough cap space this year and is unlikely to add significant salary due to the NBA owning the team. Next year though the under-performing Okafor and Ariza will be tempting targets for the new owner.

Best Decision: Save the amnesty

San Antonio Spurs

2011 Amnesty Targets to Consider: Richard Jefferson (3 years, $30.5m)

The Spurs used it already on Richard Jefferson. Good move. It gets the Spurs under the luxury tax line and Jefferson was not worth his salary.

Best Decision:

Denver Nuggets

2011 Amnesty Targets to Consider: Al Harrington (4 years, $26.7m)

The Nuggets are way under the cap. No need to use the amnesty this offseason. Down the line though getting rid of Harrington--he had an awful 2010-11 season--with the amnesty may not be such a bad idea.

Best Decision: Save the amnesty

Minnesota Timberwolves

2011 Amnesty Targets to Consider: Darko Milicic (3 years, $15.7m)

Free Darko.

Best Decision: Darko

Portland Trailblazers

2011 Amnesty Targets to Consider:

I was going to write that they should use it on Brandon Roy. However rumors are that he may retire and the Trailblazers can use the injured player clause of the CBA to get salary relief. That would be a year away though so the amnesty can be saved in case that does not go as planned.

Best Decision:

Oklahoma City Thunder

2011 Amnesty Targets to Consider: Kendrick Perkins (4 years, $32.6m)

Save it in case something goes wrong with Kendrick Perkins knees. The rest of the long term contracts on the team provide good value.

Best Decision: Save the amnesty

Utah Jazz

2011 Amnesty Targets to Consider: Mehmet Okur (1 year, $10.9m), Raja Bell (2 years, $6.7m), Devin Harris (2 years, $17.8m)

Amnesty Mehmet Okur this year and get a free agent or use it on Raja Bell or Devin Harris next year and target a free agent.

Best Decision: Save the amnesty

Sacramento Kings

2011 Amnesty Targets to Consider: None

Like the Nuggets, the Kings are so far under the cap that there is no point using the amnesty this year. Maybe amnesty John Salmons (3 years, $24m) down the line.

Best Decision: Save the amnesty

Phoenix Suns

2011 Amnesty Targets to Consider: Josh Childress (4 years, $27m)

Josh Childress was pretty bad. Due to the lack of the Suns interest in a getting a major free agent this year, saving the amnesty for Childress in the future (or in case a different player experiences a Childress like collapse) makes sense.

Best Decision: Save the amnesty

Golden State Warriors

2011 Amnesty Targets to Consider: Andris Biedrins (3 years, $27m)

Biedrins and get a free agent. Seems like a manner of when.

Best Decision: Amnesty Biedrins and sign a free agent. Warriors are already under the cap this year and the next two years so they have some flexibility with the timing.

Los Angeles Clippers

2011 Amnesty Targets to Consider: Mo Williams (2 years, $17m)

I'm not a huge fan of them signing Caron Butler for 3 years and $24m. The team has to use a lot of cap space over the next few years to keep its young promising players. Signing a veteran coming off a major knee injury limits the flexibility of a team with enough assets and potential cap space to make some major moves. Using the amnesty on Mo Williams this year or next year along with a free agent or a major trade is the best option.

Best Decision: Use the amnesty in conjunction with a major deal

Los Angeles Lakers

2011 Amnesty Targets to Consider: Luke Walton (2 years, $11.8m), Ron Artest (3 years, $21.8m)

Luke Walton seems like the obvious choice since he provides no value and the team is way over the luxury tax line. However the amount saved this year--$5m--is not worth using the amnesty over. If the Lakers wait a year or two they can use the amnesty on a larger contract to either help get a free agent or to get the team under the luxury tax line. For example, the Lakers are roughly $22m over the luxury tax. Let's say the Lakers were over the luxury tax by the same amount in 2013 except they were no longer contenders. At that point wouldn't it make business sense to use the amnesty on Kobe Bryant and save the team $50m to $80m in luxury tax savings? The wide spread in amount saved is due to the uncertainty in how the luxury tax is calculated, but the point remains; the potential to save that amount of cash and avoid the potential penalty for being above the luxury tax 4 out of 5 years is worth forgoing saving $5m on Luke Walton.

Best Decision: Save the amnesty