NBA #1 Seeds that Struggle in the First Round

A post on Hoops Analyst talks about the Los Angeles Lakers - Oklahoma Thunder NBA playoff first round series. The Lakers are the highly rated #1 seed and the Thunder are the lowest rated #8 seed. The two teams are playing a best-of-seven series. The author asks if a #1 seed that is struggling against a #8 seed is "a bad indicator for their success in the playoffs"? The post then looks at each of the #1 seeds that struggled against #8 seeds and concludes "I would venture that there is little correlation between a round one struggle and overall team weakness." What does the data say?

The Challenge: Fresh Meat II Wes's Coalition

With Wes's coalition in such a dominate position, the 7 teams in it have to start moving beyond the threat of Kenny's alliance (3 teams) and strategizing  for the end game. In particular two things: avoiding the elimination round and being one of the final four teams that gets to compete for the cash prize. As long as Kenny's alliance remains, Wes's coalition will keep choosing them to go into the elimination challenge. Wes's coalition could be left with 7 teams or it could lose a couple elimination challenges and be left with 5 teams when Kenny's alliance is down to one team. At that point Wes's coalition will have to turn on itself.

Fresh Meat II: The Future for Kenny's Alliance

In the last episode of The Challenge: Fresh Meat II, Kenny's alliance lost the elimination challenge. It also became clear that one of the teams in Kenny's alliance was a mole. That puts Wes's coalition at 7 teams and Kenny's alliance at 3 teams. Kenny's alliance is pretty much doomed. They would have to win four reward challenges and three elimination challenges in a row to get back to equal footing. A loss in any of those challenges would lead to one of the teams in Kenny's alliance going home. If every elimination challenge is a 50-50 proposition and all teams are equally likely to win a reward challenge, the probability of Kenny's alliance winning three reward challenges and two elimination challenges in a row is 0.2% (30%*50%*33%*50%*38%*50%*43%= 00.2%). There is basically no chance of Kenny's alliance seizing the majority unless Kenny's alliance gets a team from Wes's coalition to defect.

Fresh Meat II

A couple of strategic decisions came up in the MTV show The Challenge: Fresh Meat II. For those who don't watch reality TV here's a quick run down. Thirteen teams of two compete to win prizes in a reward challenge. The winner gets a prize and is safe from the elimination round. At the end of the show, two teams are picked to go to an elimination round where the losing team goes home. One of the two teams that goes to the elimination round is picked by the winner of the reward challenge, the other is picked by majority vote. After nine teams have been eliminated, the final four teams get to compete in the final challenge with the top three teams winning money.