Sunday, June 29, 2008

Which Half is the What Now?

The New York Times posted an article on the questionable efficacy of cardiac CT scans. There is a suprising quote from the website of doctor who supports CT scans. "Half of Americans have died of heart attacks and strokes. Which one are you?" This statement is absurd. Rather than dissect it gramatically, I am unsure why the NYTimes would include it, it can be taken apart with logic and algebra. There are about 300 million Americans alive right now. Let x equal the amount of Americans who have died of heart attacks or strokes (I assume the doctor meant 'or' (the union of two sets) not 'and' (the intersection)) and let y equal the amount of Americans who have died of anything else. Making x + y = the total amount of Americans who have died. From that quote we know that:

x / (x+y+3.0*10^6) = 1/2
2x = x + y +3.0*10^6
x - 3.0*10^6 = y

This tells us that x > 3.0*10^6 and x > y, assuming that x + y > 0. The percentage of dead Americans who have died of heart attacks or strokes is equal to x/(x+y). Since x > y, x/(x+y) > 1/2. For example, suppose that 500 million Americans have died. Plugging that number into the formula:

x/(5.0*10^6+3.0*10^6) = 1/2
x = 4.0*10^6
x / (x+y) = % of dead Americans who have died of heart attacks or strokes
4.0*10^6 / 5.0*10^6 = .8 or 80% of dead Americans have died of heart attacks or strokes

I am unaware of what twisted game the doctor is playing. He is trying to emphasize the risk of heart attacks and strokes with the "1/2 comment", when he could quote the x / (x+y) = % of Americans who have died of heart attacks or strokes. The latter is larger than 1/2. A mystery of a man who is trying to shock the public and undersell the problem at the same time.

On a less mathematical note, there are worse things than heart attacks or strokes to have as the leading cause of death in a society. I am reading the book Chances Are... . I am surprised by how short the life expectancy for Londoners was in prior centuries and how resistant to statistical studies the medical community was. Unfortunately, as the NYTimes article details, there are still resistance to evidence based medicine.

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