Survivor Odds

The TV show Survivor: South Pacific had a probability problem last night. The two tribes merged, meaning that the game shifted from two separate tribes into one individual tribe. However the tribes each had six members at the merge and appeared to be headed to a tie vote. The six members of Savaii tribe would vote for one of the Upolu members to leave the game and vice versa. The problem gets a little more interesting when the threat of hidden immunity idols, challenge idols, and the tie breaking rules of Survivor are considered.